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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.